Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) - Stock Analysis

Last updated: Jul 26, 2026

Research Idea

Research content for general circulation. Not individualized advice. Methodology & Disclosures

Following a record Q4 2025 revenue/earnings beat (announced 2026‑03‑19) and a successful Alpha return‑to‑flight with a Lockheed payload on 2026‑03‑12, FLY has rallied ~35% over 21 trading days and sits ~24% above its 21‑day SMA; new national‑security contracts and sector defense tailwinds create strong near-term momentum, albeit with high execution and cash‑burn risk.

Loading chart data...

Idea window: 3/26/2026 – 4/2/2026Sector: Industrials

AI Analyst Overview

Last Price
$17.84
Market Cap
$6.13B
1D Return
-7.66%
YTD Return
-20.25%

Loading chart data...

Valuation Metrics

P/E
-18.2
P/B
5.5
P/S
33.1
EV/EBITDA
-24.6
Div Yield

Price Behavior

4.0

Key Price Behavior Insights: • Lower highs • Weak rebounds • Support test Support Level: $19-$20 Resistance Level: $21.5-$22.3 FLY has fallen about 20% over the last month, with lower highs and weak rebounds confirming a bearish trend, though the $19-$20 zone may provide short-term support if it holds. ക

bearish
support

Sentiment & News

6.0

Key News Insights: • NASA contracts • Cash burn • Backlog growth Firefly Aerospace is gaining momentum from NASA-linked contracts and launch milestones, but investors should watch for dilution, cash burn, and whether backlog can turn into durable profit.

Momentum
Risk
AI

AI Summary

4.0
Negative

FLY now looks less like a pure space-growth story and more like a capital-intensive execution trade, where contract wins and capacity expansion are offset by dilution risk, cash burn, and a stock that needs to reclaim the 24–25 area before investors can trust the equity case again.

ExecutionRisk
DilutionRisk
Backlog
AI summary updated 3 days ago

Description

Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense technology firm that supplies launch and on-orbit mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers. Its services span small- and medium-class launch vehicles, lunar delivery and imaging capabilities, and in-space maneuvering and servicing platforms; the company was founded in 2017 and is based in Cedar Park, Texas.

Idea History

DateCloseTickerCompanySummaryStatusP/L
Mar 26Apr 2FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
Following a record Q4 2025 revenue/earnings beat (announced 2026‑03‑19) and a successful Alpha return‑to‑flight with a Lockheed payload on 2026‑03‑12, FLY has rallied ~35% over 21 trading days and sits ~24% above its 21‑day SMA; new national‑security contracts and sector defense tailwinds create strong near-term momentum, albeit with high execution and cash‑burn risk.
Closed+22.8%
Research content for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. All decisions are your responsibility.